Via Neil Stevens;
Rasmussen Reports has two new polls out: one on the race for Governor between Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman, and the other on the Senate race between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina.
I don’t think the results they show are compatible. If one is right, I think the other is wrong.
When Rasmussen showed Boxer ahead of Fiorina by 5 with leaners, 49-44 (which isn’t a deterioration for Fiorina because without leaners she’s as close as she’s been in the Rasmussen poll, 44-43), Margin of Error 4, I wasn’t surprised. It still gives the Republican a one in four chance of being ahead per my calculations, but I don’t expect Fiorina to make any moves until later.
But after seeing that poll for Senate, the poll for Governor did surprise me. Whitman up 8 with and without leaners? Ahead 51-43 with? That’s not what I expected. While I show a 26% chance for Fiorina, I only find 16% for the former two-term Governor Brown Jr.
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