From Neil Stevens
Boxer strikes me as the Democrats’ counterpart to Richard Burr: She really ought to be doing better, but she’s letting her opponent hang around.
In this August release, Fiorina trails boxer 40-45 (MoE 4.5). It’s a small lead, but repeating a small lead in many polls adds extra credibility to it. But if Boxer were to carry this 53/47 D+6 two party split to November, it would be a staggering drop from the 60/40 D+20 two party split drubbing she dealt to Bill Jones last time out.
Boxer appears to be a polarizing figure in the state. Her net favorability runs at +1, but the scale is heavily weighted with peaks at the ends, where 26% find her very favorable, and 32% find her very unfavorable. However Fiorina is at +4, and her ratings tend more toward the middle, with a peak at 35% finding her somewhat favorable.